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A powerful violent storm is on caterpillar tread to light upon the U.S. East Coast tomorrow , the second nor’easter to visit the area in two calendar week . The tempest will arrive tonight ( March 6 ) at 10 p.m. EST and will last until 4 a.m. on Thursday ( March 8) , allot to awinter violent storm warningissued today ( March 6 ) by the National Weather Service ( NWS ) .
But will this storm souse the region with rainwater or sink it in snow ?
When it comes to storm prediction, “the devil’s in the details."
" square snowfall accruement " could blanket New York City and parts of Long Island , New Jersey , Connecticut and the Hudson Valley , the NWS reported . However , precise amounts of snowfall are a little harder to pin down , and estimates for some areas vagabond from most 18 inches ( 46 centimetre ) to as little as 5 inches ( 13 cm ) , according to the NWS .
Why is tomorrow ’s snow proving so hard to predict ? [ Weirdo Weather : 7 Rare Weather event ]
For this storm ’s forecast , agreement amongweather modelsis in reality above average , but " the monster is in the detail , " Stephen DiRienzo , a meteorologist with the NWS , told Live Science in an email .
" The greatest uncertainty in the prognosis is along the rainwater / C transition line , which for this storm extends from Philadelphia to New York to Boston , " DiRienzo excuse .
" Oftentimes , there is literally a neat edge to the bounds between rainfall and snow , and so on the snowy side there may be largeaccumulations of coke , with none on the rainy side of the bound . So , where that line between rain and C set up , that will determine tomorrow ’s conditions for millions of masses , " he said in the electronic mail .
In this case , the violent storm change to the SE would mean that major northeastern cities would know substantial snowfall , while a shift to the nor'-west would souse those cities with heavy rainfall , DiRienzo said .
That explains the variableness inNWS mapsshowing likely snowfall : The high - end map estimate 10 inch ( 25 atomic number 96 ) of snow for New York City , while the down - remnant map predicts 0 inches ( 0 cm ) . The foretelling is similarfor Boston , with a snow reach from a high of 7 column inch down to 0 inch ( 18 to 0 cm ) .
" At this percentage point , we ’re just more or less unsure of the exact bloc of the heaviest snowfall , " Michael Musher , a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) , told Live Science .
" There ’s always variance in each system — it just look on its development and orientation , " Musher said .
Variouscomputer modelshave portend exchangeable movements for the storm — what remains to be seen is how well they can forecast temperature from the priming coat up into the upper atmosphere , which could affect the position of the rainfall / coke conversion line , DiRienzo said .
To track these temperatures , weather balloonsare deployed by the NWS twice daily — at 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. local prison term — from about half of the agency ’s offices , ascend to heights of over 100,000 feet ( 30 kilometers ) . The data gathered closer to the storm ’s arrival , such as data from the weather condition balloon slat to go up tonight and early tomorrow morning , will help provide more - accurate estimate of where the violent storm ’s weighty snow will go down , DiRienzo said in the email .
" The computer role model will give a prognosis of carry temperature in the atmosphere during tomorrow ’s storm , but those 7 a.m. balloon launches will be critical to set where the rain - C line sets up , and therefore , what weather millions of people can anticipate , " he allege .
Original clause onLive Science .
