In the innovation to his December 1901Ladies ' Home Journalarticle " What Will bechance in the Next Hundred Years , " John Elfreth Watkins , a former civil engineer , say that he conferred with the " the wisest and most careful human being in our greatest institutions of skill and acquisition " on the following predictions and plainly transcribed what they report . He does n’t mention who these great creative thinker of the early twentieth century were , but they had some remarkable hits and noteworthy miss when it came to anticipating spirit in 2001 .
1. On population
Watkins ' experts actually overestimated population development during the twentieth century . According to U.S. nosecount estimates , the population on July 1 , 2001 was just284,796,887 . They also fail to recognize the eventual decline of imperialism sparked by the British Empire . In addition to Nicaragua and Mexico , the predictions conceive of a number of South American countries voluntarily joining the U.S. to obviate being colonized by European power .
2. On stature and life expectancy
The clause was right to think increased medicament and sanitation would have a salutatory result . In fact , they underestimated the meridian evolution . Although not specific to America , worldwide theaverage man has grownfour inches from 5'6 " in 1900 to 5'10 " in 2000 . As for the life anticipation , not only did the clause low - ball our modern living spans — 74.4 yearsfor human beings in 2001 — it also under - reported the 1901 biography spans which , these day at least , are gauge at47.6 years .
3. On suburbanization
This is a thinned and dry pillowcase of get it way untimely . In 1900 , just as American urbanization was getting under means , about30 percentof the full universe lived in city . It ’s been on the rise ever since , and by 2000,79 percentof hoi polloi in the U.S. endure in urban field .
4. On language evolution
As you may have notice , none of the 26 letters they were using back in 1901 have been ban from the alphabet — not even Q. But that does n’t stand for the article was altogether off base for imagining that language would get more flowing and visceral . As annoying as it may be to replace " you " with " atomic number 92 , " that is " spelling by strait . " ( Although , contrary to these predictions , newspapers will believably stay the last bastion of right spelling and grammar . )
It ’s heavy to pin down specific for international measures of language speakers , but a 2010 estimate from a Swedish encyclopediaputs English at third in the world , behind Mandarin and Spanish . Russian Erodium cicutarium in at number eight .
5. On temperature control
Yep .
6. On animals and insects
We may onlywishthat stinkpot , mouse , and mosquitoes were extinct , but the expert summons in the clause had valid reason to think that expanding human population would relegate the remain wild animals to zoos and other enclosures .
7. On convenience eating
The premonition about the prevalence and convenience of takeaway food is fundamentally fleck - on . Sure , we do n’t revert the stunner to be wash , but that ’s because we ’ve since adopted the manipulation of disposable utensil . And the list of mechanized kitchen gimmick maybe over - eager , but many have become whole received , in restaurants and even dwelling house kitchens .
8. On food sanitation
wellness code are hardly as strict as the article foresee — police against " air catch one’s breath out by supporter " seems impossible — but now that they mention it , I should probably start laundry produce from the vendors on the street .
9. On the depletion of coal and renewable resources
Coal usage was certainly on the decline in the twentieth century , hitting a depression in 2006 . But unfortunately , it has not been dependably replaced with renewable sources like water baron . In fact , in 2010 , hydroelectric sources made up just 6 percent of the total electrical energy product in the land . Instead , as ember enjoyment wane after the first two decades of the 20th 100 , it wasreplaced by oil . Mechanical needs propagate by World War II force back an increase in fossil oil function and by 1950 , oil had surpassed ember as the most predominant energy reference in America .
10. On the rise of public transportation
So close ! Below - ground traffic in the form of subways certainly has taken off in the preceding one C , but as anyone with a street - confront window in New York City — or presumptively any large urban center — can demonstrate to , that does n’t intend large urban center ever " costless from all noises . "
11. On photography (and, unintentionally, the internet)
It does n’t always make it to the newspapers first — Twitter , anyone?—but it also does n’t even take an hour .
12. On train travel
Amtrak , which is not inevitably representative of all train travelling but is wide used , reports top operating pep pill of150 miles per hour . So , spot on .
13. On automobiles replacing horses
Trying to fact - check the monetary value of a horse — a wide variable good — over a hundred age ago and account for puffiness is not an exact scientific discipline , but here are some bit to facilitate with the comparison : The average price of a horse in 1895 , agree to oneNew YorkTimesarticle , was around $ 60 ; and $ 60 in 1901 translates to roughly$1166 in 2000 . The average cost of a new car in 2000 was$20,355 . Which , for what it ’s deserving , is about $ 1029 in 1901 . So no , by no matter what measured you use , cars are still not cheaper than a horse was in 1901 . But the rest of the foretelling is precise . irrespective of disbursal , machine have in full replaced cavalry vehicles .
14. On admirable exercise habits
It ’s difficult to gauge the progress we ’ve made in fulfill our sire ' predictions for fitness . A childhood emphasis on exercise is certainly obtrusive in the current civilization , but I fear they ’d find a number of " weakling[s ] " walk ( but not for 10 miles at a sentence ) about . Of of course , public gym might help the cause .
15. On the swiftness of sea travel
We by all odds do n’t have ground-effect machine sail boats or ocean lining as expected , and atrans - Atlantic tripwill still take you at least a workweek , but that ’s because this next prediction wrench out a little differently as well .
16. On air travel
alas for the accuracy of this prediction , not only do boats fail to cross the Atlantic in under two Day , air - ships have mastered the trip in a matter of hours .
17. On developments in warfare
And this only scratches the surface of modern war .
18. On increased viewing capabilities
In fact , we do n’t even need to go to the theatre to witness the wonders of television technology anymore .
19. On telephones
I ’m actually not convinced that international fee are n’t so outrageous as to be prohibitive but technically , this one is true .
20. On hearing the opera anytime you want
This prediction in reality seems to conflate several modern technologies . The emphasis seems to be on both consistent admittance to eminent character euphony — a burgeoning but still flawed experience at the clip — and the power to witness alive result , which has become a regular experience in the modern era .
21. On education, and enforced social equality
While the United Kingdom offer country - fund higher Department of Education ( or at least it did back in 2001 ) , far from fulfil this forecasting , America seems mired in a crisis surrounding the price of higher Education Department , and the loans it forces bookman to take on . The thought of societal services find fault up the tab for not only medical fees but also educational trips seems overly idealistic but an eased financial loading for students with both indigence and deservingness is the motivation behind many learnedness .
But we ’ve by all odds nixed housekeeping and etiquette from any programme I know .
22. On home deliveries
Speaking as someone who always miss the delivery guy , I wish well !
23. On electrically-grown veggies
We do n’t even necessitate electric wires under the ground because " gardens under crank " — greenhouse — work so well .
24. On other means of eating fruit in February
sum in air - support refrigerators and this prognostication is alarmingly accurate .
25. On the oddities we will grow and eat
Sadly , giant fruit has remained the stuff ofchildren ’s fable . ( That link is not just peaches . )
26. On medical improvements
Sure , electricity did n’t turn out to be the panacea that the article predicted . But at least our x - light beam and imaging capability would n’t disappoint .
